.png){kind=logo}
Information is coming in from all over trying to predict the possible consequences of a pandemic and widespread quarantine. Some of them describe negative scenarios, but there are also those that highlight its possible positive consequences. An example of the latter can be found in an interview on Deezen magazine with Li Edelkroot, owner of Trade Union, a trend prediction company. Li talks about how, thanks to the epidemic, "we will learn again how to be happy owning a single dress, reading a forgotten book."[1] As he describes - this situation will force us to slow down the pace of our lives. Moreover, both our values and our purchasing decisions will have to change. "Over the past few years, we have admittedly recognized that in order to survive as a species, we need to change our lifestyles, but we have done little in this regard, as if we waited for the problem to solve itself. Now the ability to improvise and creativity will become top assets,"[2] she added.
Of course, not everyone shares Edelkroot's enthusiasm. Without entering into discussions about future scenarios, one thing is certain today - we are all experiencing rapid change, which creates uncertainty. However, in spite of this, we don't stop, but continue to act - only that without a plan - that is, we improvise.
Just what does this skill consist of? When do we use it? And is it really as useful as Edelkroot indicates? I answer these questions in the following texts, which I have divided into several parts:
PART 1 - WHEN MUST WE IMPROVISE?
The most common impulse to improvise is a surprising event that we didn't anticipate beforehand - so we don't have a plan of action against it. We then feel uncertainty about both how to behave and what the consequences of our actions might be. So before we move on to explore the skill of improvisation itself, let's take a closer look at what causes it, i.e. the phenomenon of uncertainty - which has various facets.
UNCERTAINTY MAKES US EMOTIONAL
The familiar fear of the unknown
Often the first thing we do when entering a dark room is to turn on the light. It's a natural reflex that offsets our level of uncertainty about what might be in that space. Understandably, we do this for new rooms, but why do we light up rooms we know well at night?
As research shows, we very often react to uncertainty with anxiety[3]. This happens even in cases where the situation does not carry any significant risks[4]. What we fear most is what we do not know. In such situations, our imagination can produce various scenarios about this unknown, which are often unrealistic. After all, more often than not, what can scare us the most in our room is... the mess. Maybe that's why folk wisdom says that fear only has big eyes?
No spoilers only!
On the other hand, life without uncertainty would not be such a source of excitement and joy[5]. It's what creates such curiosity in us that we can't stop ourselves from seeing the next episode of the series (despite the inappropriate timing). What's more, we are annoyed by spoilers. After all, by taking away our uncertainty about the plot, someone is irrevocably destroying our viewing pleasure. We also get excited about sports for the same reason. During matches, it is the uncertainty about the winner that is exciting.
Uncertainty, then, is a state in which we do not know the results of some action. When these affect us, we most often react with fear, while when the uncertainty of a situation affects someone else (a character in a TV show, athletes) it can cause us curiosity or excitement. There is also another distinction of uncertainty that affects our behavior - namely whether we expected it or not.
EXPECTED AND UNEXPECTED UNCERTAINTY
Uncertainty from Silicon Valley
A good example of dealing with uncertainty that is expected is start-ups. Suppose you have an idea for an innovative product. You try to estimate how well it can fit into customer needs and market realities. However, you can only do this to a certain extent. There is always an unknown in such cases - a risk - that the product will not succeed. However, despite such uncertainty, many people make an attempt. As the data shows, 90% of startups fail in their first years of operation[6]. However, this does not discourage entrepreneurs - making attempts despite the known risks. How do they deal with such expected uncertainty? They believe in their abilities and discover the unknown on the fly. By acting. By improvising.
No one expects the Spanish Inquisition[7]
However, there are situations that we could not foresee. In such cases, we talk about unexpected uncertainty. We can consider it in two dimensions.
On a personal level, it can be a surprising encounter with a person with whom we were once close. In such a situation, we may feel uncertainty about how to behave. Such a situation can also create a sense of discomfort. Our thoughts may confront our feelings and, as a result, we don't know how to react.
Lately, however, we have been facing unexpected uncertainty on a broader level. A pandemic is an event that few could have expected. Its consequences are unclear and affect us all on a socioeconomic level. It is an example of the Black Swan described by Nicholas Thaleb - an unpredictable (subjectively very unlikely) event with a huge impact on the environment and the world, which in retrospect will be presented as something that was foreseeable[8]. There are also claims that it is a gray rhinoceros, "that is, a phenomenon that has a huge impact on our functioning and, although we usually don't remember it, is very likely[9]. Me thinks it's the Spanish Inquisition[7].
We all feel the constraints of universal quarantine. They make us uncomfortable with the inevitability of change. But despite this, we try to adapt - we change our previous strategies of action by inventing alternative possibilities - that is, we improvise again.
Of course, a pandemic is a very difficult moment for most of us. Few people can evaluate the coming changes positively, but rarely do we evaluate any change positively[10]. And yet change and the discomfort that comes with it are natural parts of our environment.
NATURAL DISCOMFORT OF CHANGE
If lobsters didn't feel discomfort
Never before have ordinary people lived in such comfort as before[11]. We got used to it. We treated it as the norm. We didn't want change, because it creates uncertainty and a feeling of discomfort. And it is precisely the feeling of discomfort that can be the best motivation for development. This is brilliantly put by Dr. Abraham Twerski in his story about lobsters[12].
It can be predicted that if we continue to cling to comfort while avoiding the difficulties that change brings, we may soon resemble the people in the animated film Wall-e. Maybe we will become a species that gives the realization of most of its needs to companies and robots[13]?
You won't plan the world of VUCA
Of course, the above future scenario does not have to happen at all. It is difficult to make plans about the reality a few years from now. This is because we live in a world that is difficult to predict. It can be described under the acronym VUCA, an environment characterized by high volatility (volatility), uncertainty (uncertenty), complexity (complexity) and ambiguity (ambiguity)[14]. All this makes our environment - the world, the market and business - more difficult to understand[15]. In spite of this, we still try to predict the future more accurately and create detailed action plans based on it. Just why?
HOW ORGANIZATIONS DEAL WITH CHANGE
Efficient as a machine
Large companies are very much tied to planning because they have a hard time dealing with change. Some of the large organizations can be described by the metaphor of a machine that produces a product - independent whether it is cars or toilet paper. This view of business has been used since the Industrial Revolution[15]. The most important criterion by which such institutions evaluate themselves and their employees is efficiency - that is, the impact of a particular department or person on specific company goals. Often the main reason for the existence of such companies is to make as much profit as possible. Therefore, sometimes "when a part of a machine doesn't do its job we replace it. If a person doesn't do what is in the job description then we replace the person." - describes Martha Shaw[15]. Such an organization constantly tries to accurately predict the future in order to have time to rebuild some mechanism or design a system update.
Fortunately, for a few years now, we have seen the birth of a new perspective describing the functioning of organizations, as confirmed by management science[15]. This is the metaphor of the organization as a living organism[16].
The company as an organism
"What does it mean that something is alive? It is an open system, maintains homeostasis, is composed of cells, has a life cycle and metabolism, grows, adapts to the environment, responds to stimuli, evolves and reproduces."[15] Moreover, the entire organism operates on the basis of a detailed DNA code[15]. Such a code for an organization is a clear mission - a goal that everyone shares. From the perspective of the organization as an organism, the employee is not a cog, working for the efficiency of the mechanism, but an independent cell affecting the homeostasis of the entire system. This is a significant difference that manifests itself in a change in thinking - from linear (mechanical) thinking, to dynamic (organic) thinking[17].
For too long, organizations have been thinking in a mechanical way turning their attention to maximizing their profits through continued growth. The result is a significant exploitation of our environment and a global climate crisis. Fortunately, it is clear what the alternative can be, and as described by Piotr Voelkel[18] or Iwo Zmyślony[19], among others - this crisis is an opportunity. Despite great difficulties and a pervasive sense of discomfort, the current situation may be the impetus for a shift from an ego-driven economy to an economy based on being eco[20] - as described by Vincent Siciliano.
HOW WE CAN DEAL WITH UNCERTAINTY
Uncertainty and change are natural parts of our environment. We live in a complex world and are forced to constantly respond to the unknown. For this, the existing metaphors we use to describe the functioning of large organizations may no longer be adequate. How can we deal with uncertainty and change?
We can build a sense of purpose based on our values, which Simon Sinek describes in his book[21]. It can also be our skills. One of them is the ability to improvise, which is naturally associated with uncertainty and not having a plan. What exactly does it consist of? You can read about it in PART 2 of the article. [coming soon]
Footnotes:
[3] Hirsh, J. B., Mar, R. A., & Peterson, J. B. (2012). Psychological entropy: A framework for understanding uncertainty-related anxiety. Psychological Review, 119(2), 304.
[4] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1871187119302470#bib0395
[6] https://www.failory.com/blog/startup-failure-rate
[7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aG5HcnOVUYQ
[9] https://www.forbes.pl/life/natalia-hatalska-o-konsekwencjach-koronawirusa-na-spoleczenstwo/nm1vfbb
[10] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/w-czasach-chaosu-szukaj-oparcia-sobie-marcin-capiga-phd/
[11] Hans Rosling - Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World and Why Things Are Better Than You Think
[12] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEXIF2hNmv8
[13] https://youtu.be/s-kdRdzxdZQ
[14] https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeroenkraaijenbrink/2018/12/19/what-does-vuca-really-mean/#5a521b817d62
[15] Shaw, M. (2019). Ice on the water, or the need for new metaphors in institutions.Forum for Theatre Educators and Educators, November 29, 2019
[16] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puq2U-sCGeo
[17] https://medium.com/@theo_dawson/how-to-build-leadership-decision-making-skills-a9acf7427dd4
[20] https://youtu.be/ei47FQByv7w
[21] Simon Sinek - Start with why.
Share this article
Bart Jurkowski
Founder of I'MPRO IMPRO. Concordia Design expert. Ex-UX Consultant at Deloitte Digital. He left his corporate job to devote himself to improv theater, which he learned in Warsaw, Los Angeles and Chicago. He has implemented impro workshops for Google, Alior Bank and mBank, among others. He teaches the first course in applied improvisation in Poland for MBA majors. After hours, he teaches at the Warsaw School of Economics and performs in the Improvised Musical on the stage of the Warsaw Comedy Club.
